Weak Monsoon to Hit Summer Crop

MUMBAI -- An expected fall in monsoon rainfall to below-normal levels this year will likely hit India's summer-sown crops, the planting of which has already been delayed by at least two weeks.

According to government estimates, the country's annual monsoon rains during the June 1-23 period were 53% below normal and overall rainfall is expected to be around 93% of the long-term average for the season.

The June-to-September monsoon season is crucial for the country's summer-sown crops as 60% of the country's agricultural land is rain-fed.

Monsoon rains arrived earlier than usual this year, hitting the Kerala coast May 23, ahead of the usual June 1 start date, but later progress was slowed by a cyclone that hit parts of the country.

Rains have revived since June 21, but normally, monsoon covers most parts of the country, except the northwest, by June 20.

So far, the rains have not advanced to the oilseed and pulses growing regions in central India and sugarcane growing provinces of northern India.

"The sowing (of pulses, soybean and cotton) has already started in certain areas when it rained initially. But the monsoon coverage is not up to the expectations, (and that) may impact overall yield as well as productivity," said Harish Galipelli, head of research at Karvy Comtrade Ltd.

India's summer-sown food grain output could fall 4% on year due to weak monsoon rains, Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd said in a recent report.

Farmers may opt to re-sow in areas where the monsoon has been delayed beyond expectations after initial showers, said S. Raghuraman, head of research at Agriwatch, a commodities brokerage.

The delay in planting as well as insufficient soil moisture could impact the sugarcane crop in major growing states such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, officials said.

"Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to come down to 5 million tons in 2009-10, from an earlier estimate of 5.3 million tons as the delay in monsoon is likely to reduce yield," said Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of Maharashtra Sugar Co-op Sugar Factories Federation Ltd.

The country's oilseed crops is also likely to be hurt if there are further delays in annual monsoon rains over major growing regions, said Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

"For a good oilseed crop, rains should come by June 25 to central India and (at the) latest by June 30 to northern India, failing which the oilseed crops may be lower than projected," he said.

According to the Meteorlogical Department, monsoon rains in central India were 75% below normal in the first 23 days of June.

The outlook is no better for pulses and cotton.

"Because of the delay in monsoon rains, the crucial initial requirement is not being met and pulses sowing has been delayed," said Satish Upadhyay, a member of the Pulses Importers Association.

But it is too early to assess its impact on the crop although some production loss is certain, Mr. Upadhyay added.

India is the world's largest importer of pulses and a fall in production could force the country to import more.

The country's annual output is usually around 17 million to 18 million metric tons, while output is not more than 15 million tons.

According to A.Ramani, joint secretary of the South India Cotton Association, "cotton sowing has been delayed by about 15 days in some regions and that is sufficient reason for the market to firm up in the coming days."

Prices of other commodities such as sugar and pulses have already started rising and other commodities may follow the trend, officials said.

"You may see some inflationary pressure on prices of various agriculture commodities from here on, if this situation continues," said Naveen Mathur, head of commodities at Angel Commodities, another commodities brokerage. link....